PERSPECTIVES FOR GROWTH OF THE POPULATION IN BULGARIA
Dimitar Arkadiev
Abstract: Bulgaria is currently in a demographic crisis that might lead to a demographic catastrophe. The study discusses the conditions that have led to this state, and some opportunities and ways to stop the negative processes.
The long term change in the number of population in the country from 1880 to 2011 is analysed. Established are the components of total population growth in certain periods. Such are the natural growth (the difference between births and deaths) and mechanical growth (from territorial changes and external migrations). The total growth was 4.5 million people. The natural increase was 5.8 million. (Born are over 17.6 million, the dead were 11.8 million.). Mechanical growth is -1.3 million. (From territorial changes it was 0.3 million, and the migration rate was -1.6 million). After 1992, all components are negative.
Specified are the conditions for overcoming the demographic crisis and sources to ensure population growth: 1) immigration policy (attraction to persons of Bulgarian ethnic group from neighbouring or more distant countries, return of persons with Bulgarian origin, who have emigrated to other countries and their descendants, attracting from other countries persons with a close language and culture to Bulgarians and persons professing the country's main Christian religion); 2) policy to reduce mortality (reduce to the lowest possible limit of deaths from external causes, restriction of drug abuse and its consequences, smoking, excessive alcohol use, prophylactics for early detection of various diseases leading to premature death, reducing child mortality, etc.); 3) birth encouraging policy (creation of all conditions for normal child-rearing primarily in a family environment, prevention of births in young age, criminalizing the abandonment of children by their mothers, prevention and treatment of infertility and many others); 4) other policies in the social field (solving of some problems with part of the Roma population, ‘basic income’, etc.).
Discussed and offered are projections for population growth until 2070. They also apply to ethnic composition. Population is expected to fall to 5 - 5.5 million people. From these persons the Bulgarian ethnic group consists of about 70%, Turkish - 10%, and Roma - 20%.
Discussed are some unfavourable scenarios for the development of Bulgaria. They would not become a fact under two main conditions - economic growth and strict observance of the rule of law in the state.
The long term change in the number of population in the country from 1880 to 2011 is analysed. Established are the components of total population growth in certain periods. Such are the natural growth (the difference between births and deaths) and mechanical growth (from territorial changes and external migrations). The total growth was 4.5 million people. The natural increase was 5.8 million. (Born are over 17.6 million, the dead were 11.8 million.). Mechanical growth is -1.3 million. (From territorial changes it was 0.3 million, and the migration rate was -1.6 million). After 1992, all components are negative.
Specified are the conditions for overcoming the demographic crisis and sources to ensure population growth: 1) immigration policy (attraction to persons of Bulgarian ethnic group from neighbouring or more distant countries, return of persons with Bulgarian origin, who have emigrated to other countries and their descendants, attracting from other countries persons with a close language and culture to Bulgarians and persons professing the country's main Christian religion); 2) policy to reduce mortality (reduce to the lowest possible limit of deaths from external causes, restriction of drug abuse and its consequences, smoking, excessive alcohol use, prophylactics for early detection of various diseases leading to premature death, reducing child mortality, etc.); 3) birth encouraging policy (creation of all conditions for normal child-rearing primarily in a family environment, prevention of births in young age, criminalizing the abandonment of children by their mothers, prevention and treatment of infertility and many others); 4) other policies in the social field (solving of some problems with part of the Roma population, ‘basic income’, etc.).
Discussed and offered are projections for population growth until 2070. They also apply to ethnic composition. Population is expected to fall to 5 - 5.5 million people. From these persons the Bulgarian ethnic group consists of about 70%, Turkish - 10%, and Roma - 20%.
Discussed are some unfavourable scenarios for the development of Bulgaria. They would not become a fact under two main conditions - economic growth and strict observance of the rule of law in the state.
Keywords:
Date published: 2016-03-11
Download full text