SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE NATAL (FERTILE) CONTINGENT IN BULGARIA AND THEIR IMPACT ON BIRTH RATE
Dimitar Arkadiev
Abstract: The article discusses the decrease in the number of live births in Bulgaria during the last 15-20 years. This reflects directly on the total number of the population in the country. The trends in the change in the number of live births and women from the maternity contingent are studied.
The model of spline-functions (live births) and second order parables (women) are used to describe the lasting trend. It characterizes the structure and structural changes in the age distribution of women from the birth contingent and the born from them children. The dimensions of some fertility rates are analysed. The changes of age-related birth rates are discussed. An index factor analysis of the number of live children is made. Changes in the total fertility rate are monitored. The pattern of the second row parabola is used. Finally, the possibilities for increasing the number of live children in Bulgaria are discussed.
The main results of the analysis are as follows: Fertility increases, but the number of women in the maternity contingent decreases steadily. Births occur at an older age of the mother. Some opportunities for increasing the number of live births are: immigration of women in childbearing age, state policy to stimulate educated fertility, reduction of abortions, invitro- procedures, using other countries' experience in demographic policy, and others.
The model of spline-functions (live births) and second order parables (women) are used to describe the lasting trend. It characterizes the structure and structural changes in the age distribution of women from the birth contingent and the born from them children. The dimensions of some fertility rates are analysed. The changes of age-related birth rates are discussed. An index factor analysis of the number of live children is made. Changes in the total fertility rate are monitored. The pattern of the second row parabola is used. Finally, the possibilities for increasing the number of live children in Bulgaria are discussed.
The main results of the analysis are as follows: Fertility increases, but the number of women in the maternity contingent decreases steadily. Births occur at an older age of the mother. Some opportunities for increasing the number of live births are: immigration of women in childbearing age, state policy to stimulate educated fertility, reduction of abortions, invitro- procedures, using other countries' experience in demographic policy, and others.
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Date published: 2017-08-17
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