ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN BULGARIA - EMPIRICAL EVALUATIONS OF THE OKUNS LAW

Vasil Tsanov

Abstract: The article explores the impact of economic growth on unemployment in Bulgaria. A dynamic econometric model based on the differential approach of the Okun's law has been developed. Two variants of dependence for a comparative analysis of the results have been evaluated.The rolling regression approach is applied to assess the stability of the relationship over time. The results obtained can be summarized in three main conclusions: first, there is a negative impact of economic growth on unemployment; secondly, the two models give different estimates of the impact strength, and third, the relationship between them is not stable and changes over time depending on the dynamics of economic development.

Keywords: unemployment; economic growth; Okuns law

Date published: 2018-06-07